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Bursts: The Hidden Pattern Behind Everything We Do
Download PDF Bursts: The Hidden Pattern Behind Everything We Do
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Audible Audiobook
Listening Length: 9 hours and 50 minutes
Program Type: Audiobook
Version: Unabridged
Publisher: Random House Audio
Audible.com Release Date: May 7, 2010
Whispersync for Voice: Ready
Language: English, English
ASIN: B003L8L4U8
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
I find my own experience with this book well described by other reviewers in the 2-star rating. The only concepts I learned here were that prioritized queues can give power law distributions of waiting times, and that Levy flights can produce non-recurrent random walks even in 2 dimensions. That's not a lot, and I could have found such concepts in scholarly publications for free. But you never know how you are going to stumble across a useful new idea, so maybe for this alone the price of the book was worth it.I enjoyed the Hungarian history, but the constant interruptions "for a message from our sponsor" (i.e. Barabasi) made it less like D.W. Griffith's Intolerance (with multiple parallel plots) and more like a TV show where they build suspense only to cut to the commercials every three minutes. The only way I finished this book was to jump through it to read the Hungarian history thread uninterrupted, and then go back and pick up the science.There were a lot of off the wall characters paraded through the book, so it had interest as a shop of curios.But I would have to say that whatever actual assertions Barabasi is making about "the hidden pattern behind everything we do", I am not persuaded.
Spends a lot of time regurgitating the history of early Hungary and Transylvania (his homeland) for reasons that never do become particularly clear. After his book, "Linked In" I was expect the same style and tone it was disappointed. I kept reading thinking that at some point Barabasi would tie it all together, but if he did that, I certainly missed it. Ended up not really be sure why he wrote the book. Some of the claims he made in the beginning certainly don't come to fruition. A disappointment.
I thought Albert-László Barabási's first book, "Linked: How Everything Is Connected to Everything Else and What It Means," was excellent (see my 4/18/10 review), so I looked forward to reading "Bursts" with great anticipation, hoping that he was going update us on all the interesting things he learned in the intervening 8 years (especially related to biomedicine and cancer). Instead, having just finished "Bursts," it's hard to convey how disappointed I am.While "Linked" presented plenty of solid and useful science in an appealing format, "Bursts" has minimal scientific content and I learned almost nothing. The only significant idea Barabási presents is that the time-spacing of many events in the natural and artifical worlds follows a power law distribution, which means that events have some tendency to cluster into "bursts," although very widely spaced events can also occur, since power laws have "long tails" rather than dropping off exponentially (as Barabási himself acknowledges in passing, "bursts" is a somewhat misleading term, since power law distributions are continuous, not dichotomous). But Barabási doesn't offer much explanation for the ubiquity of these power laws, nor does he offer useful insights regarding their implications.He does try to argue that awareness of these power laws will eventually enable precise prediction of human behavior, but this is simultaneously both obvious and wrong (and it's telling that Barabási appears to be unaware of the seminal work of Quetelet on this topic). It's obvious because we already know that people are necessarily creatures of routine and habit, so where we are and what we're doing will often be predictable. But it's wrong because, like the weather, our lives also involve volatility and bifurcation points, such that much that's important about our individual and collective lives will remain unpredictable. I've experienced this in my own life in profound ways, and so have you (think back, and you'll recall some pivotal moments).Most of the book is actually taken up by a discussion of an episode from Hungarian history of the 1500s. This may interest Barabási for personal reasons, and perhaps it satisfies some urge to be a historian or novelist (which he apparently has a knack for), but it has no place in this book. I kept waiting for this plot and other plots interwoven throughout the book to all gel together in the end, but they never did -- I feel like I was waiting for Godot.Overall, this book was a waste of money and (more importantly) time. The only redeeming feature is that I was able to read it quickly (three days), but that's small consolation. I really don't know what Barabási was thinking. I must also add that I was partly swayed to read this book by the endorsement from Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the back cover; that endorsement has unfortunately harmed Taleb's credibility in my eyes.
The author takes a very circuitous route in trying to promote a rather simple idea: that despite occasional "bursts" in mainly human activities, the activities have predictable "patterns", referred to in his subtitle.The idea unfortunately rests on absolute determinism, the presumption that every event is governed by inviolable laws of nature, theoretically enabling complete prediction of the future if all preexisting conditions are known. The author recognizes, of course, the role of statistics and its mathematical utility for successfully estimating many future occurrences. But he proposes additional "power laws", somehow independent of other, mathematical, laws, in keeping with the assumption of a law-based nature.He nevertheless points to statistical patterns in even regularities interrupted by "bursts" or "outliers", returning us to probabilistic mathematics. The deeper issue is (bypassing here the famous uncertainty principle): are all events in nature truly predetermined by preceding ones? The author makes reference (p.105) to free will as complicating everything, and suggests (pp.253-4) that by "quantifying everything we do" science is "forcing us to rethink everything we take for granted, from free will to our privacy".Does "quantifying everything we do" dispose of free will? There appears no such logic. We still seem to possess the power of choice, regardless of whether there are similarities in our actions because of similar circumstances, which allow statistical predictions. The irony is there is a contradiction in the deterministic hope for predictability of human action and for corresponding improvements of our lives. The author regrets (p.258) that, unlike in weather forecasting which has improved with increasing knowledge of underlying conditions, "to predict conflicts and wars in the hopes of helping us one day avoid them altogether" has failed, and he wonders: "Have we matured enough to trust our predictive abilities?"What escapes him is that should determinism allow us "to predict conflicts and wars", it equally prevents this from "helping us one day avoid them altogether". If the future is determined, we have no choice about its course.The author embellishes his rather narrow argument for eventual better predictability of all occurrences (an argument unfortunately endlessly elaborated by him and others in prestigious scientific journals) with intriguing stories both present and past, which somehow involve that argument. He is evidently a good storyteller, although his acknowledgements list many assistants. Many particulars seem gratuitous though. He gives the impression of a Hungarian chauvinist, writing, e.g., the dedication ("To my children") in Hungarian. Yet it seems unsuitable for children (I really don't know their age), and unnecessary, to resort to citing (p.169) obscene language in relation to a Hungarian accent, or to describe in detail (pp.265-6) the gruesome execution of a legendary Hungarian figure.
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